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立訊精密可望在未來數年受益於印度設廠與iPhone事業利潤顯著提升 / Luxshare expects to benefit from the establishment of a factory in India and a significant increase in profits from the iPhone business in the coming years

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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)

](https://medium.com/@mingchikuo?source=post_page-----89e382a980eb--------------------------------)

結論:

  1. 預期Apple將協助立訊精密在印度設立產線,立訊精密可望在未來數年受益於印度市場與供應鏈的成長
  2. 立訊精密已取得2024年最高階iPhone 16機種 (Pro Max) 的NPI。這是鴻海首次沒有取得最高階iPhone組裝NPI。
  3. 立訊精密的iPhone事業利潤將自2H23開始顯著成長。

最新調查與預測如下:

  1. 投資人擔心地緣政治不利立訊精密在印度設立生產線,進而影響未來成長性。然而,我最新調查指出,Apple將與印度政府協商以協助立訊精密在印度設立生產線,解決方案包括設立合資公司等。
  2. 根據過去iPhone組裝的經驗,當每年出貨量超過3,000萬部時,利潤將會顯著增長。立訊精密已取得iPhone 15 Plus NPI,且又是15與15 Pro Max二供,故預計2023年iPhone出貨量可達4,500–5,000萬部 (vs. 2022年的約2,000萬部)。
  3. 2022年11月的鴻海鄭州工廠事件後,Apple為分散風險故將iPhone 14 Pro Max部分訂單轉移到立訊精密,因立訊精密的iPhone 14 Pro Max生產良率改善時程優於預期,故已取得2024年iPhone 16 Pro Max組裝NPI,這意味著Apple認為立訊精密的研發與生產能力已達一線供應商水準。此能力提升亦有益於立訊精密的iPhone事業利潤改善。
  4. 2024年的iPhone 16組裝NPI的分配為立訊精密 (16 Pro Max)、鴻海 (16 Pro與16)、與和碩 (16 Plus)。故預期立訊精密的iPhone出貨單價將在2024年進一步提升。此外,因立訊精密也會受益於和碩的iPhone top module訂單,故立訊精密的垂直整合優勢也將持續擴大並有利利潤。

Conclusions:

  1. Apple is expected to help Luxshare set up production lines in India, and Luxshare will benefit from the growth of the Indian market and supply chain in the coming years.
  2. Luxshare has obtained the NPI for the highest-end iPhone 16 model (Pro Max) in 2024. This is the first time that Foxconn doesn’t win the highest-level iPhone assembly NPI.
  3. Luxshare’s iPhone business will see significant profit growth from 2H23.

The latest surveys and predictions are as follows:

  1. Investors are concerned that the geopolitical situation will not be favorable for Luxshare to set up production lines in India, which will impact future growth. However, my latest research suggests that Apple will negotiate with the Indian government to help Luxshare set up production lines in India with solutions such as a joint venture.
  2. Based on experience with iPhone assembly, profits will improve significantly once shipments exceed 30 million units per year. Luxshare expects to ship 45–50 million iPhones in 2023 (up from approximately 20 million in 2022), with the iPhone 15 Plus NPI already secured and the 15 and 15 Pro Max as a second supply.
  3. Apple has transferred some iPhone 14 Pro Max orders to Luxshare for risk diversification after the Foxconn Zhengzhou incident in November 2022. Luxshare’s production yield improvement schedule for the iPhone 14 Pro Max is better than expected, so the company has been awarded the iPhone 16 Pro Max assembly NPI for 2024. It means that Apple believes that Luxshare’s R&D and production capabilities have reached the level of first-tier suppliers. Luxshare’s iPhone business profit will also benefit from this improved capability.
  4. The iPhone 16 assembly NPI for 2024 will be allocated to Luxshare (16 Pro Max), Foxconn (16 Pro and 16), and Pegatron (16 Plus). As a result, the unit price of iPhone shipments from Luxshare is expected to increase further in 2024. In addition, Luxshare’s vertical integration advantage will continue to expand and increase profits, as Luxshare will also benefit from Pegatron’s iPhone top module orders.