Reality Pro, the latest product declared dead before arrival

Bono Glasses

I don’t imagine Apple Glasses will look like these…

I can still remember when critics declared the iPod a failure before it was introduced. The chorus of negativity may have different singers today, but the song remains the same, as feeble analytical skills declare the product a dud before the fun’s begun.

Just a little history repeating

This really is likely to be another example of history repeating itself. Just like the iPod, the iPhone was also declared dead before arrival, and the iPad, we were then told, had little chance against the mighty netbook industry.

Things didn’t turn out this way.

So – what’s happening?

We are literally weeks away from WWDC 2023, where Apple will give developers the first chance to explore some of what its new mixed reality goggles, apparently called Apple Reality Pro, are capable of.

We’re told that Apple isn’t expecting to be able to ship these devices in vast quantities, in part because the hardware and software are complex, and the company wants to get those pieces right.

I think that’s code for a more general release of the product in fall, and I think Apple may plan to stagger the release, perhaps making it available to developers first and to customers later down the line at Apple Store demo days.

The actual product shipment will follow sometime after that, and at a cost that means the company will ‘only’ sell 300,000 of them this year. At $3,000 a pop that’s a nice billion dollar business in one shot.

Dead before arrival, the Apple way

We’ve read so many repetitive reports claiming Apple lacks a killer app with these glasses, but those claims once again seem to reflect the lack of imagination of those making them.

The key use case for the first generation Apple goggles will be to empower developers to think about great apps, while also giving enterprise users seriously powerful tools that help them in business.

Think of the environment on offer as something like FaceTime meets Freeform meets Voice, Gesture, and glance control. Apple plans to take this tech to consumer markets, but via those key markets first.

*We already think we know the company has plans to create these systems at lower cost in future, which is when it will really press at consumer markets.

We’ve also read so many reports that judge the Apple Reality book by other people’s covers, and yet some industry insiders are already making statements to the effect that the goggles deliver a really outstanding experience.

From zero to hero before the story begins

Evan Blass says his contact has gone from being underwhelmed to being blown away when using pre-release versions of the device. And Oculus founder, Palmer Luckey has gone on Twitter to say, simply, “The Apple headset is so good.”

[Also read: Apple’s unannounced product already sounds better than Meta]

Another criticism that’s been bandied around is the purported use of a power brick that provides just two hours of usable battery life. This claim may or may not be true, but given the likely usage of these first-generation systems, and their cost, the chance that people will want to wear them walking down Main Street is somewhere between nada and never.

It’s a criticism that completely misses the actual purpose of these products.

So, what is the purpose?

For Apple, it’s to stake space in the nascent industry from which to move forward. It is also to deliver a system that is simply much better than those available from anyone else, while the apps it does deliver (Facetime, Fitness) will aim to show the capabilities of these devices and to inspire developers.

Apple knows , just as the whole industry knows, that the first big moat to vault with these devices is not to present them as new toys for consumer markets, but as professional systems for enterprise, education, medical industries.

That’s where these technologies make the most sense, returning to another of Apple’s core missions, to build tools creative people can use to do creative things.

I guess one of the big challenges with the iPod generation is that some industry watchers just don’t understand that for Apple, success was never about sales numbers, but always about delivering unique solutions that meet fundamental human needs.

With that in mind I’m interested to see what Apple comes up with in Reality Pro, and pretty confident that the rest of the story will fall into place.

Those pre-release critics will of course hope that history forgets they ever said what they said. For me, it’s as simple as this: One day you’ll wear your Mac like sunglasses.

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