Net-zero commitments could limit warming to below 2 °C
- NEWS AND VIEWS
- 13 April 2022
Analysis of climate pledges by nations at the COP26 meeting indicates that such commitments could ensure that global warming does not exceed 2 ºC before 2100 — but only if backed up by short-term policies.
By
- Zeke Hausfather 1. Zeke Hausfather is at Stripe, San Francisco, California 94103, USA, and Berkeley Earth, Berkeley, California 94705, USA.
- Frances C. Moore 1. Frances C. Moore is in the Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, Davis, California 95616, USA.
The impacts of climate change on human civilization and the natural world will depend on exactly how hot the planet gets over the remainder of the century. The answer to this question hinges on two related uncertainties: how does the physical climate system respond to greenhouse gases? And what volume of greenhouse gases will humans put into the atmosphere? Writing in Nature, Meinshausen et al. 1 report that pledges made by countries to limit emissions over the long term could keep warming to less than 2 ºC above pre-industrial temperatures. But optimism should be curbed until promises to reduce emissions in the future are backed up with stronger short-term action.
Access options
Access Nature and 54 other Nature Portfolio journals
Get Nature+, our best-value online-access subscription
24,99 € / 30 days
cancel any time
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 51 print issues and online access
199,00 € per year
only 3,90 € per issue
Rent or buy this article
Prices vary by article type
from$1.95
to$39.95
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Additional access options:
Nature 604, 247-248 (2022)
doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-00874-1
References
Meinshausen, M. et al. Nature 604, 304–309 (2022).
Hausfather, Z. & Peters, G. P. Nature 577, 618–620 (2020).
Friedlingstein, P. et al. Preprint at Earth Syst. Sci. Data https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2021-386 (2021).
International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2021 (IEA, 2021).
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). 2H 2021 LCOE Update (Bloomberg, 2021).
United Nations Environment Programme. Emissions Gap Report 2021 (UNEP, 2021).
Hausfather, Z. & Richie, J. A 3C World Is Now “Business as Usual” (Breakthrough Inst., 2019).
Liu, P. R. & Raftery, A. E. Commun. Earth Environ. 2, 29 (2021).
Network for Greening the Financial System. NGFS Climate Scenarios for Central Banks and Supervisors (NGFS, 2021).
Ou, Y. et al. Science 374, 693–695 (2021).
Climate Action Tracker. 2100 Warming Projections (CAT, 2021).
International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2021: Technical Note on the Emissions and Temperature Implications of COP26 Pledges (IEA, 2021).
Sognnaes, I. et al. Nature Clim. Change 11, 1055–1062 (2021).
Morris, J., Hone, D., Haigh, M., Sokolov, A. & Paltsev, S. Environ. Econ. Policy Stud. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10018-021-00339-1 (2022).
Climate Resource. COP26 Briefing Paper: Updated Warming Projections for NDCs, Long-Term Targets and the Methane Pledge. Making Sense of 1.8°C, 1.9°C and 2.7°C (Climate Resource, 2021).
Moore, F. C. et al. Nature 603, 103–111 (2022).
Riahi, K. et al. Global Environ. Change 42, 153–168 (2017).
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Pörtner, H.-O. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, in the press).
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, in the press).
Competing Interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Related Articles
[
Read the paper: Realization of Paris Agreement pledges may limit warming just below 2 °C](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04553-z)[
Trade-offs for equitable climate policy assessed](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03392-0)[
Social, political and technical feedback processes will drive future climate policies and emissions](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00351-9)